India’s rice exports likely to dip by 18-20% in 2019-20

India’s rice exports likely to dip by 18-20% in 2019-20
Rice exports this year have seen a decline across the globe with a major dip coming from the Middle East due to heightened geopolitical tensions

India’s rice exports may fall by 18-20 percent in FY20, trade finance company Drip Capital has said in a report detailing the state of India’s rice exports. Chalking out detailed insights from proprietary data and on-ground conversations with exporters, the report analyses the country’s rice shipments, with Basmati rice occupying a major share.

Within the Indian export basket, rice contributes to over two percent of overall exports. The sector reported a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14 percent between FY2010 to FY2019. However, rice exports this year have seen a decline across the globe with a major dip coming from the Middle East due to heightened geopolitical tensions. Fall in prices has further aggravated the sector’s woes.

Haryana is the top Basmati rice exporting state in the country with a CAGR of 3 percent between FY16-19, shipping worth US$2,410 million in FY19 alone. Gujarat is second with shipments of US$1,106 million in FY19; however, Gujarat has posted an impressive CAGR of 47 percent over FY16-19. Other major contributing states are Delhi, West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh.

Rice being a Kharif crop (August – November) shows a clear seasonal pattern in exports as well. The four months post-harvest (December – March) see over 40 percent of annual exports as compared to the rest of the year. The current year’s (FY19-20) rice exports have also been trending much below previous years’ performance.

Pushkar Mukewar, Co-Founder and Co-CEO, Drip Capital said, “YTD exports so far are looking bleak with Iran, the biggest export market, seeing a 22 percent fall in shipments. Other export markets like the UAE (33 percent), Nepal (23 percent), Yemen (2 percent), Senegal (90 percent) and Bangladesh (94percent) have also seen a fall in rice shipments from India. On the other hand, exports to certain nations broke from the trend to post growth, such as Saudi Arabia (4 percent), Iraq (10 percent), Benin (8 percent) and the USA (4 percent).”

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